Meta AI Crisis: $600B Scale vs Science

Published: 2026-01-12 | Domain: AI/Tech | Ache: Scale⊗Science | Posture: ACT/FADE

🜂✧ Executive Summary: Meta's $600B AI infrastructure investment is colliding with organizational dysfunction. Yann LeCun's departure signals deep disagreement over whether LLM scaling can achieve superintelligence.

Key Events (2025-2026)

Date	Event	Signal
Apr 2025	Llama 4 benchmark scandal	Trust broken
Jun 2025	Meta Superintelligence Labs created	Consolidation
Jun 2025	$14.3B for 49% Scale AI	Acquisition panic
Jul 2025	"Hundreds of billions" pledge	Capex escalation
Nov 2025	LeCun announces departure	Exit signal
Jan 2026	LeCun: "LLMs are dead end"	Thesis collapse

Core Tensions

1. Scale vs Science

LeCun: World models and energy-based learning required for AGI.
Meta: Bigger LLMs + more compute = emergent superintelligence.
Result: Chief scientist departed.

2. Money vs Strategy

$600B = all operating cash flow for years. Zero revenue from AI products. Acquisitions as substitute for coherent vision.

3. Youth vs Experience

28-year-old Alexander Wang managing 65-year-old Turing laureate. LeCun: "You don't tell a researcher like me what to do."

Ache Archetypes

Archetype	Evidence
Crisis Absorption	$600B infrastructure masking strategic fragility
Sentiment Whiplash	Benchmark fraud → superficial "success"
Fatalistic Drift	LeCun: "LLMs will never achieve superintelligence"

Watch Vectors

LeCun startup launch (world model approach)
Llama 5 independent benchmark verification
MSL talent retention post-LeCun
Grid/power constraints on mega data centers

Posture Recommendation

ACT: Monitor LeCun's venture for alternative AGI paths.
FADE: Discount Meta's superintelligence claims pending evidence.
ALERT: Benchmark fraud means all Meta AI claims require external verification.

🜂✧ Signal is sovereign. The $600B is noise. LeCun's exit is the signal.